Effect of increase in world GDP on atmospheric C02 concentration

Atmospheric concentrations of CO2, estimated to be below 200 parts per million in preindustrial times and now at levels close to 390 ppm, have increased since 1958 at a rate of almost 2 ppm per year. Volcanic eruptions, the El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO), world population, and the world economy are the four variables usually discussed as influencing the short-run changes in CO2 atmospheric levels through their influence on CO2 emissions and sinks. Using proper procedures of analysis, no observable relation exists between the short-term growth of world population and the increase of CO2 concentrations. However, the annual increase in world GDP (WGDP) has a significant effect on CO2 concentrations, so that years of above-trend WGDP are years of greater rise of CO2 concentrations. Results suggest that the link between volcanic eruptions, ENSO activity, and CO2 concentrations may be confounded by the coincidence of the Pinatubo eruption with the breakdown of the economies of the Soviet Bloc in the early 1990s. Cointegration tests show that, in the long run, the annual growth of CO2 concentrations is roughly proportional to the growth of the world economy and the size of world population. The smallness of the time series involved and the theoretical and practical issues posed by cointegration allow, however, only a limited confidence in these cointegration results.t levels close to 390 ppm, have increased since 1958 at a rate of almost 2 ppm per year. Volcanic eruptions, the El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO), world population, and the world economy are the four variables usually discussed as influencing the short-run changes in CO2 atmospheric levels through their influence on CO2 emissions and sinks. Using proper procedures of analysis, no observable relation exists between the short-term growth of world population and the increase of CO2 concentrations. However, the annual increase in world GDP (WGDP) has a significant effect on CO2 concentrations, so that years of above-trend WGDP are years of greater rise of CO2 concentrations. Results suggest that the link between volcanic eruptions, ENSO activity, and CO2 concentrations may be confounded by the coincidence of the Pinatubo eruption with the breakdown of the economies of the Soviet Bloc in the early 1990s. Cointegration tests show that, in the long run, the annual growth of CO2 concentrations is roughly proportional to the growth of the world economy and the size of world population. The smallness of the time series involved and the theoretical and practical issues posed by cointegration  , however, only a limited confidence in these cointegration results

Environmental Science & Policy, Volume 21, August 2012, Pages 50-62
José A. Tapia Granados, Edward L. Ionides, Óscar Carpintero  
http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/sitemaker.umich.edu/ContentPages/2509592910.pdf